The Shelf Life of Civilizations

The way I look at it, everything has a shelf life. I am aware, for example, that there is an expiration date in my personal DNA—I just haven’t found it—and I am not looking for it, either. But, as the old guys used to say, sooner or later I will “go the way of all flesh.” Philosophers have said this about civilizations, too. Civilizations are born, often through great labor pains; they grow, mature, go senile, and then are buried in the dustbin of history. Forgotten except for people who write doctoral dissertations. Plato, Karl Marx, Oswald Spengler and many others have tried to discern the lifespan of cultures and nations, following Plato’s analogy that the State is the Soul Writ Large—in capital letters, so to speak. As Malcolm Muggeridge colorfully put it a few decades ago, every new social movement ends up like an old brontosaurus that one-day keels over and dies. “The End.” Think of all the once flourishing cultures that are no more, yet intrigue us as we uncover their remains. Incas and Aztecs, Egyptians and Sumerians, Aryans and Easter Islanders. The Mustang Kingdom of Nepal and the Clovis civilization of North America. Some seemed destined for immortality, such as the Roman Empire that persisted for a thousand years. The same for dynasties in China, India, and Egypt. Yet they all collapsed in the end. For me, the dynamics here are a mere matter of input and output. And the pattern is like the progress of a rolling hoop launched with a vigorous spin onto the landscape of history. Think of it this way. A group of people spins their hoop with great energy across the topography of time. Each revolution is a generation that comes and goes but perpetuates the momentum of its civilization. There are ups and downs along its path. There are obstacles that it bumps over or wobbles around—natural disasters, plagues, internal revolts or external wars. But the hoop rolls on—for a time. All the while the system is ageing—to switch to a biology metaphor. Flushed with success in its early years, it begins to soften as it enjoys the fruits of its youthful energy. It begins to get flabby—more appetite than muscle. Outsiders are soon hired to do the hard work. Once gritty fingernails are now polished. Calluses are replaced by a soft elegance on hands at the ends of arms with no biceps. Many are able to outsource military duties and escape a sacrifice that might cost them their life. In the last days money begins to run low, enemies grow bolder. Now in its dotage, the energy ebbs, inviting either an inner decay that proves fatal or a coup de grace by external opportunists eager to bury the remains and start a new civilzation. So the corpse goes back to the dust; the hoop founders and falls to the ground, never to roll again. In philosophic terms, the values that created the society tend over time to be forsaken. Out-take overcomes input. Social discipline weakens. Traditional values no longer drive most people. Social energy flags. The law of social entropy sets in. Marx thought that the hoop of history could roll forever upward and reach the plateau called Utopia where political change with its messy conflicts breeding crime and war would cease and humans would roll their hoops for cultural advances only. (This is a form of utopianism that so far has failed everywhere it has been attempted.) Others thought that the hoops would always roll upward to greater evolutionary heights as humans evolved to nearly divine proportions. “Every day in every way we are getting better and better.” (This theory is labeled meliorism, of which progressivism is a contemporary example.) Still others say that the hoop rolls only downhill, with occasional brief uplifts. (The technical name for this is primitivism: the "good old days" theory.) I go for a combo theory: things get better technologically, medically, and the like, but slowly go downhill morally and spiritually, all the while cycling through the chaos of the ins and outs, the ups and downs of cultural change. Another law of human nature that is constant is that of unforeseen consequences. Sometimes good surprisingly comes from destructive sequences. Sometimes evil arises from seemingly benevolent or at least harmless actions. I say unforeseen. I do not say unforeseeable. Many of the trendy changes we now see in social norms and structures are spinning the hoop downhill not uphill. If we would we could discern this. But we tend to ignore things that we wish were not there—like the people I know that would not go for a medical test that was recommended. Several of them are now dead, I am sad to say. To get to the present state of the world, it seems to me that we are sliding down a slope to a very real precipice that could (not must) bring us to a cataclysmic social event from which humans might never recover. Let me explain. 1. We have seen ever greater catastrophes as the technical power in our hands increases. Example: the next world war would likely make all other wars seem benign by contrast. We are now on the edge of a possible doomsday scenario, when nuclear conflict could, as some put it, bomb us all back into the Stone Age. 2. We are now one global community such that a pandemic that eludes our clever attempts to keep the bacteria and viruses at bay will collapse and decimate the global population in unimaginable ways. Who knows what percent of the world population might succumb? 3. Or there could be a financial crisis in the global network that would collapse the fragile economies of the world like a house of cards. 4. Or, God forbid, it could be a combination of these apocalyptic woes. For me, I expect a combination Tsunami of Troubles. When economies dissolve and disease thereby runs rampant, violence is inevitable. Given the track record of human nature, when push comes to shove, this seems unavoidable. At that point, the horrors hinted at in the Bible's Apocalypse (Book of Revelation) come true as things unravel in, pardon the term, biblical proportions. Our hoop is already lurching down slope with a steep descent ahead. Bill Cosby put it this way in 2011. After summing up his frustration with people who excuse wrong behavior, blame others, and want more from the government, he admits he’s old and he’s tired, and he won’t be around too much longer. “But mostly, I’m not going to have to see the world these people are making. I’m just sorry for my granddaughter and her children. Thank God I’m on the way out and not on the way in.” Is this a great comedian going sour due to age and bitterness? Or is this a man who sees what’s just around the corner? While I am not an end-time guru—I personally hope that normal history goes on a long time so more people have a chance to repent—there are uncanny signs of the fulfillment of biblical prophecies about the end of history as we have known it. Just the sequence predicted there is stunning—from good to bad to worse. First comes a powerful message of peace symbolized by a rider on a white horse—the token of righteousness and justice. Next comes a red horse with war and slaughter in his train. Third is a black horse whose rider symbolizes economic ruin. The last horse is grey in whose track is disease and death. Decent people who have been killed by ruthless criminals in the chaos are crying out for justice. Along with these woes come natural disasters that terrify even the mightiest of the world’s powerful people. Meanwhile, God is protecting those who trust in him even though they suffer horribly for his kingdom’s sake. Next come a series of natural disasters that I associate with a cosmic catastrophe that could possibly come from a magnetic pulse from the sun. Wildfires on land and chaos on the oceans, followed by what could be a meteor that contaminates water supplies. Clouds from volcanoes darken the skies as things turn for the worse. All hell breaks loose. Insects explode bringing disease and pain in their train. Armies go forth to wreak havoc with what might be chemical and biological weapons. Finally God steps in just as all is about to be lost. The cosmic battle of God and good versus Satan and evil comes to a head. People are forced to turn against God or be wiped out. But in the end God’s enemies are brought down once and for all. History as we know it comes to an end and the kingdom of God breaks in and comes to fruition. The Son of God presides over the last judgment. Implacable opponents of God and goodness are forever separated from those who love God and have persevered through all the turmoil and persecution. The conflict is over for good. The great dance of joy, love and peace begins—life forevermore. Civilizations may have a shelf life. God’s kingdom is forever.